Under proportional representation your party vote helps decide which group of parties governs. This page shows the likely coalitions, where they agree and disagree, what each party's plans cost, and how the parties line up. Figures are as of 15 October 2026.
Seats are calculated with the Sainte-Laguë method used by the Electoral Commission, from the average of the six most recent polls (1 September to 12 October 2026). Move a slider to test other results. A party needs 5 percent of the party vote or one electorate seat. 61 of 120 seats is a majority.
Party vote percentage. Dots are individual polls. The solid line is the trend estimated from this pollster's polls only, and the shaded band is its 95 percent range, which narrows where polls are frequent and widens between them. After the latest poll the line is dashed and the band widens to election day, showing how far support could drift if nothing else is known. The number beside each party is the trend at the latest poll, plus or minus its 95 percent range. The first point is the 2023 election result. The dashed grey line is the 5 percent threshold. Select a party name to hide or show it.
Method: a random walk model fitted with a Kalman filter and smoother, as used by poll aggregators (Jackman 2005, Australian Journal of Political Science). Each poll is assumed to survey about 1,000 people, with its sampling error widened by a design effect of 1.5 to allow for weighting. How quickly support drifts is estimated from the data for each party and pollster. The band covers sampling error only; error shared by all polls, such as people who refuse to answer, is not included.
Yearly new spending and new revenue or savings from announced policies, in billions of dollars. For scale, total government spending is roughly 150 billion dollars a year.
Pick an issue to compare the parties. Each entry is what the party says, taken from its own 2026 policy pages where possible (select a party name to open them), otherwise from the news and analyst reports listed below. Quotation marks show the party's exact words. Where a party's policy pages do not cover an issue, the entry says so.
A dash means the party’s 2026 policy pages do not cover the issue.
Left to right scores from the Manifesto Project, an academic project that codes every sentence of each party manifesto. The score is the share of sentences coded as right minus the share coded as left, so it runs from minus 100 to plus 100. The most recent New Zealand manifestos it has scored are from 2020. It does not cover Opportunity, and scores for 2023 and 2026 are not yet published.
Te Pāti Māori is shown under its earlier name, the Māori Party, from 2005. Scores move a lot between elections because each manifesto is scored on its own wording, so trends matter more than single points.